Pagosa Springs, Colorado: San Juan River Forecast to Break Its 1911 Record as Officials Order Residents Out

Archuleta County told residents in evacuation zones to leave at once on Sunday morning, as the San Juan River rose toward a forecast crest that would break a record set in 1911. The order covers low-lying areas along the San Juan, Rio Blanco, Navajo and Piedra rivers around Pagosa Springs, Colorado. "Do not wait for the water to rise. Do not wait for another warning. Leave now," the county said in its Sunday morning update, reported by KSUT Public Radio.

The county said it was bringing in more search and rescue resources, including ground and air support and the Colorado National Guard. Mandatory evacuation orders from the town of Pagosa Springs and from Archuleta County remain in effect. The town has opened shelters and placed barricades and equipment.

A forecast above the 1911 record

The National Weather Service revised its forecast on Saturday night, October 31, and now projects that the San Juan River at Pagosa Springs will reach nearly 20 feet in the early hours of Monday morning. The FOX Forecast Center put the possible crest as high as 19.71 feet. The record is 17.8 feet, set on October 5, 1911. A Potentially Dangerous Situation river flood warning is in effect, with significant and historic flooding possible, according to the weather service.

The forecast rose through the weekend. In a statement issued at 1:20 p.m. on Saturday, the sheriff's office put the expected crest at 16.9 feet around midnight on Sunday night. At an emergency meeting on Saturday, town manager David Harris said the river was expected to peak at 17 feet early on Monday.

Rain on ground that has not dried out

Nearly 3 inches of rain is projected for Pagosa Springs from Sunday into Monday morning, falling on ground still soaked by last week's storms. A winter weather warning covers the nearby mountains for the same period, with up to 18 inches of snow possible at higher elevations. The Four Corners region sits under a Level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk for Sunday.

Nine days after the last flood

On October 23, the San Juan River peaked at about 15 feet at Pagosa Springs, the highest level in more than a century and second only to the 1911 flood. That flooding destroyed roads and buildings and forced the evacuation of thousands of residents across the Southwest. Flash flooding last week also killed two people in New Mexico. Residents who had only just returned home are being told to leave again.

Officials warn that rescue may not reach everyone

"We just want the public to understand that help may not be immediately available to rescue people tomorrow evening and Monday morning," said Vicki Shaffer of the Archuleta County Sheriff's Office. The sheriff's office told people who choose to stay to expect higher water than last week and to prepare a go-bag with food, water, medications, critical documents and a charged cell phone, and to move to the highest floor if water enters the building. Sand and bags are available at self-fill stations at the Public Works Building, 1122 Highway 84, and the Los Pinos Fire Station, 275 Browning Avenue in Ignacio. Residents who need help evacuating can call the non-emergency dispatch line at 970-731-2160, and emergencies go to 911.