Democrats Lead in All Seven Senate Battlegrounds in Final New York Times Siena Polls

Democratic Senate candidates lead their Republican rivals in all seven battleground states in the final New York Times and Siena University polls, released on Sunday, two days before the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3. The surveys put Democrats ahead in five seats now held by Republicans, in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas, and ahead by double digits in Michigan, where the party is defending a seat. The seventh race, in Iowa, is effectively tied.

The seven races, state by state

In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 53 percent to 42 percent, the widest gap in the survey. In Texas, Democratic state Representative James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 50 percent to 43 percent. Texas has not elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1988. In Maine, Democrat Troy Jackson leads Republican Senator Susan Collins 51 percent to 45 percent. In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, leads Republican Senator Jon Husted 49 percent to 44 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton leads Republican Senator Roger Marshall 49 percent to 44 percent, with Libertarian David Graham at 4 percent. Kansas has not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1932. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola leads Republican Senator Dan Sullivan 48 percent to 46 percent. In Iowa, the Democratic candidate leads by a single point, a result both campaigns read as a tie.

Close races, wide error bars

The polls carry a clear warning against reading the leads as results. Only the Michigan and Texas leads sit outside the polls' margins of error, which run from 3.3 points in Texas to 4.8 points in Alaska. The other five races are inside the margin of error. Siena surveyed 5,708 likely voters between October 23 and November 1, with state samples of 1,215 in Texas, 1,011 in Michigan, 736 in Kansas, 717 in Ohio, 714 in Maine, 705 in Iowa and 610 in Alaska.

Republicans hold the Senate 53 to 47. Democrats must defend every seat they now hold and flip at least four Republican seats to reach 51 and take control. Winning Texas, Maine, Ohio and Kansas while holding Michigan would do it, which is why the Texas and Kansas numbers drew the most attention on Monday.

Trump and the cost of living weigh on the map

Across the seven states, 38 percent of likely voters approved of President Donald Trump's job performance. Democrats led Republicans by nine points on the cost of living, the issue voters in the surveys ranked first. Don Levy, executive director of the Siena Research Institute, said a Democratic Senate majority is a distinct possibility on these numbers, and he stressed the other half of the finding. "While a blue wave, and Democratic control of the Senate is, according to our polls, a distinct possibility, with so many races within the poll's total margin of error, a Senate majority for either party remains possible," Levy said.

Trump makes his closing pitch at the Reflecting Pool in Washington on Monday afternoon, after rallies in Iowa and Kansas on Sunday. Both parties spent Monday on final turnout drives in the seven states. Polls taken before election day have missed in past cycles, and the campaigns treated the release as a turnout argument, not a verdict. The verdict arrives on Tuesday.