Trump Rallies in Iowa and Kansas in Final Push for Senate Control

President Donald Trump returned to the campaign trail on Sunday, November 1, with rallies in Iowa and Kansas, two days before the November 3 midterms that will decide control of Congress. Trump spent Saturday at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida after weeks of campaigning. The Sunday stops opened the final push in a contest where both chambers are close enough for a small number of races to settle the result.

Voters will decide 35 Senate seats and all 435 House seats on Tuesday. Republicans hold a 53 to 47 majority in the Senate and a narrow edge of 218 to 214 in the House. A shift of a few seats in either chamber would change who sets the agenda in Washington for the next two years, who confirms judges and officials, and who can open investigations of the administration.

A record early vote

More than 52 million Americans had already voted in person or by mail by Sunday, a midterm record, according to the University of Florida Election Lab. The total is up from nearly 46 million who voted before Election Day in 2022. The record turnout before Election Day does not by itself show which party will win. Party officials in both camps have pointed to the early numbers as a sign of energy among their own voters, and tens of millions more ballots are expected on Tuesday.

Iowa and the Hinson race

In Iowa, Trump backed Republican Representative Ashley Hinson in her Senate race against Democrat Josh Turek. The Iowa rally was moved from Dubuque to Cedar Rapids. Trump won Iowa by double digits in 2024, and Republicans count the state as ground they should hold. A Senate seat lost in a state the president carried by a wide margin would be a hard blow for his party and a sign that the national mood has moved against it.

Kansas and a long Democratic drought

In Kansas, Republican Senator Roger Marshall faces Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist pastor. Kansas last elected a Democratic senator in 1932. That long run shows why a competitive race there draws national attention in the final days. For Democrats, even a close finish in Kansas would suggest their support is reaching into states they rarely contest at this level. For Republicans, a clear win would help protect the Senate majority even if other close races go against them.

Cancelled, then restored

The rallies had an unsettled week. The Republican National Committee cancelled them on Thursday, October 29, in favour of a tele-rally. The party restored them on Friday, October 30, after pushback from Republicans in both states. Trump said on Friday that he had received calls asking him to come in person. The reversal put the president back in front of crowds for the last weekend, in the format his campaign has used for years, rather than speaking to supporters by phone.

What happens next

Polls close on Tuesday night and counting will follow state by state. Close races in the House may take days to settle, and control of that chamber may not be clear on election night. The Senate picture should come into focus sooner, but a single upset in a state such as Iowa or Kansas would change the maths for both parties. Trump has made the closing argument in person. Voters who have not yet cast a ballot now have the final word.