Cost of Living Won the Midterms: What Congress Can Change

Ask voters what this election was about and the answer is a grocery bill. Nearly nine in ten voters said the cost of living was a crucial or major factor in their choice, according to exit polls conducted by SSRS for a consortium of US media outlets and the Associated Press and reported by Reuters. About 39 percent of voters in the AP survey called the economy the single most important issue facing the country, ahead of every other subject. Democrats took both chambers of Congress on that verdict. The harder question, the one readers are now searching, is what a new Congress can actually do about prices.

The anger was specific, not vague. NBC's exit poll put concern about gas and diesel at 87 percent of voters, groceries at 88 percent, utilities at 86 percent and healthcare at 85 percent. The Wall Street Journal, reporting the AP survey, found three-quarters of voters described the economy as not so good or poor, and those voters backed Democratic candidates by 67 percent to 29 percent. Nearly 80 percent said inflation had caused their family hardship in the past year. Inflation ran at 3.7 percent in September, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics figures cited by the Journal. Gasoline prices are up nearly 50 percent since the war in Iran began in February. Mortgage rates sit above 7 percent.

Why it matters

Democrats campaigned on affordability and corruption, in that order, blaming the president's tariffs and the Iran war for higher costs, Reuters reported. Nearly two-thirds of voters blamed President Trump for high prices. That gives the incoming Congress a clear order from voters and a narrow set of tools to carry it out. Congress writes spending bills and tax law and runs oversight. It does not set interest rates, drill for oil, or order a supermarket to cut a price. Most of what Congress passes still needs the president's signature, and he can veto it.

What Congress can do fast

Three levers move in January, when the new Congress takes office on January 3, 2027. First, spending: the House originates money bills, and a Democratic House can fund or refuse programs, and attach conditions. Second, oversight: committees gain subpoena power, and Reuters reported Democrats are expected to investigate the administration and demand concessions on major legislation. Oversight does not lower a bill, but it changes what the executive branch can do quietly. Third, nominations: a Democratic Senate can block the president's nominees, including a Supreme Court justice if a vacancy opens.

What it cannot do fast

Tariffs show the limit. Congress could vote to roll back existing tariffs, but business executives told Reuters on Wednesday that such legislation faces major political hurdles and a likely presidential veto, and they do not expect the Democratic win to ease companies' cost and tariff problems in the near term. Prices set by world oil markets move on the war, on OPEC and on demand, not on a House vote. The Senate also works under the filibuster: most big laws need 60 votes, and the final Senate margin is still open, with the Mississippi and Alaska races uncalled. A majority of two or three seats is a governing tool, not a blank check.

The context

This was a verdict on household budgets more than on party brands. Voters who said the economy was poor broke heavily for Democrats, and the Democratic gains reached rich counties and poor ones, Reuters found. The president's own reaction pointed at prices too: he told the Wall Street Journal that Iran was part of the story and that oil and gas prices were the bigger liability. Two uncalled Senate races, Mississippi at a margin of dozens of votes and Alaska at about 1,677 votes in the last reported counts, will set the exact size of the majority that has to work within these limits.

Key numbers

Cost of living a crucial or major factor: nearly 9 in 10 voters. Economy the top issue: about 39 percent. Voters calling the economy not so good or poor: three-quarters. Inflation in September: 3.7 percent. Gasoline: up nearly 50 percent since February. Mortgage rates: above 7 percent. New Congress seated: January 3, 2027.

What happens next

Watch the lame-duck session first: the outgoing Congress still has to fund the government. Then watch the first bills the new House files in January. If they lead with a tariff vote, a drug price bill or a housing measure, that order tells voters which part of the grocery bill Congress thinks it can reach. The honest answer today is some of it, slowly, and none of it before January.