Lexington, Kentucky: Zach Dembo Flips the 6th District as Ralph Alvarado Concedes

Democrat Zach Dembo flipped Kentucky's 6th Congressional District on Tuesday night, after Republican Dr. Ralph Alvarado conceded the race in central Kentucky. The seat, held by Republicans since 2012, sends a Democrat to the U.S. House from central Kentucky for the first time in more than 15 years.

As of 9:02 p.m., Dembo held 53.4 percent of the vote with about 74.1 percent of votes counted, according to unofficial results reported by the Courier Journal. Decision Desk HQ also projected Dembo as the winner. The count is unofficial until the state canvass is complete.

Dembo is a former federal prosecutor and a Navy veteran making his first run for office. He left his prosecutor job in 2025 over disagreements with President Donald Trump's policy priorities, the Courier Journal reported. He will succeed U.S. Rep. Andy Barr, a Republican who gave up the seat to run for the U.S. Senate and won that race on Tuesday.

A seat that was drawn to stay Republican

Alvarado, a former state senator and a former Tennessee health commissioner, was considered a strong favorite for much of the year. The 6th District has voted Republican since 2012, when Barr beat Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler, and it was redistricted in 2022 to bring in more Republican-leaning rural counties.

The race tightened in the final month. Analysts at the Cook Political Report and the University of Virginia's Center for Politics each moved the race two steps toward Democrats over the past month, from Likely Republican to Leans Republican to Toss Up. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put money into Dembo's campaign and helped promote him on the air. Trump backed Alvarado and urged Kentucky voters to support him in a post on Tuesday.

Money poured into the race from both sides. Each campaign spent more than 2 million dollars. A group called Kentuckians Not Corruption spent more than 700,000 dollars backing Dembo and more than 930,000 dollars opposing Alvarado, while No Going Back PAC spent more than 1.2 million dollars supporting Alvarado and more than 1.2 million dollars attacking Dembo, the Courier Journal reported.

Why the district matters

Kentucky has only one Democrat in its current U.S. House delegation, U.S. Rep. Morgan McGarvey of Louisville. Dembo's win gives Democrats a second seat from the state and a pickup in the national fight for the House. Because Kentucky reports results earlier than most states, national analysts watched the district on Tuesday night as an early sign of how far the Democratic wave might reach.

At Dembo's watch party, supporters grew emotional as the results leaned his way. "I'm going to cry," supporter Isabelle White said as she watched the numbers come in near 9 p.m., the Courier Journal reported. Alvarado's supporters watched the count at a separate venue, where he had trailed since the early returns from Lexington and Fayette County came in.

Dembo, who campaigned as a prosecutor who would stand up to Washington, takes the seat when the new Congress is sworn in. The district covers Lexington and a ring of central Kentucky counties.