Trump Approval Falls to 33 Percent, a Record Low in Post-ABC Poll, Weeks Before Midterms

Updated 21:17 UTC: Third poll puts approval at 31 percent

A third national poll, from Reuters and Ipsos, put President Donald Trump's approval at 31 percent on Monday, October 19, the lowest level in either of his terms in that polling, Reuters reported. The four day poll closed on Monday and was down one point from the Reuters and Ipsos result two weeks earlier.

Reuters said worry about high gasoline prices sat behind the fall, two weeks before the November 3 midterm elections. Asked which party they would vote for if the elections were held today, 47 percent of registered voters picked Democrats and 35 percent picked Republicans. Reuters said the 12 point Democratic lead was the widest in that generic ballot question in the current election cycle, and could help Democrats try to take the House and the Senate. Losing either chamber could complicate Trump's agenda in the last two years of his term, Reuters said.

The online survey gathered answers from 1,679 adults in the United States, including 1,279 registered voters. The margin of error was 2 percentage points for all adults and 3 points for registered voters.

Updated 15:41 UTC: Second poll puts wrong track at 71 percent

A second national poll released on Sunday, October 18 matched the Post and ABC result. The NBC News Decision Desk poll, taken with SurveyMonkey, found that 71 percent of United States adults said the country is on the wrong track, the highest share of President Donald Trump's second term, USA Today reported.

Trump's approval in the NBC poll stood at 34 percent among adults, a second term low in that polling, with 66 percent disapproving. Fifty one percent said they strongly disapprove, a second term high. Among registered voters, 39 percent approved and 61 percent disapproved.

The economy was the top issue in the NBC survey, cited by 31 percent of respondents, followed by threats to democracy at 22 percent and healthcare at 13 percent, Barron's reported. Fifty eight percent of adults said Trump's policies are hurting the country, while 28 percent said they are helping and 14 percent said they are not making a difference.

Fifty five percent of registered voters in the NBC survey said they would choose Democrats over Republicans to control Congress for the final years of Trump's second term. Voters held a negative view of both parties: 43 percent viewed the Democratic Party favorably against 57 percent unfavorably, and 37 percent viewed Republicans favorably against 63 percent unfavorably.

The NBC poll surveyed 19,135 adults from September 28 to October 12. The margin of error is plus or minus 2.6 percentage points.

President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33 percent in a Washington Post, ABC News and Ipsos poll released on Sunday, October 18, the lowest mark he has recorded in that polling, USA Today reported.

The survey found that 66 percent of United States adults disapprove of the job Trump is doing. Fifty two percent said they strongly disapprove. Approval stood at 37 percent in the same polling in April and in July, so the new number is a drop of four points since the summer.

The result landed a little more than two weeks before the midterm elections on Tuesday, November 3, when voters will decide which party controls Congress. It also matched the direction of a Fox News poll released on October 14, which marked Trump's lowest approval rating in that network's polling during either of his terms.

Prices are driving the numbers

The economy sat at the center of the result. Around 3 in 4 Americans disapproved of Trump's handling of the cost of living and inflation, USA Today reported. The economy and the Iran war, and what both have done to household finances, were at the top of voters' minds, and many voters blamed Trump and Republicans in recent polls.

For the first time in more than a decade, voters said Democrats were more trustworthy than Republicans on the economy, by 40 percent to 33 percent. That is a change in an area where Republicans have usually held the edge.

Seventy two percent of Americans said the country is heading in the wrong direction. That figure has risen five points since April.

Democrats lead the House race, and voters want a check

Democrats held an eight point lead over Republicans among registered voters in the race for control of the House. The lead was three points in the Post's July poll, so it has grown by five points in three months. Political Wire, reporting the same poll, put the generic congressional ballot among likely voters at 52 percent for Democrats and 44 percent for Republicans.

Registered voters also said, by 58 percent to 39 percent, that they would rather have Democrats in control of Congress to act as a check on the White House. That margin has roughly doubled in a year.

History is against the party in power in a midterm year. In the 2018 midterms, during Trump's first term, Democrats gained 41 House seats and picked up two Senate seats, in Arizona and Nevada. This year the Senate map is competitive in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

How the poll was done

The poll was conducted from October 9 to October 13 among 2,545 United States adults. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 percentage points for all adults, and plus or minus 2.2 percentage points for registered voters and likely voters.

A single poll is a snapshot, not a result. But this snapshot shows a president at his weakest point in this survey series, an opposition party ahead on the economy for the first time in more than ten years, and a House race that has moved toward Democrats since July, with just over two weeks of campaigning left.