Markets Roundup: Stocks Slide, Oil Jumps, Crypto Ends Red October

Wall Street closed October with a sharp selloff on Friday, October 30, and crypto closed a red month with it. The Nasdaq Composite fell 2.86 percent to 25,437.00, its worst day since June. The S and P 500 fell 1.82 percent to 7,580.07. The Dow fell 1.09 percent to 51,770.31. Intel led the fall, down 28.58 percent after a weak fourth quarter outlook, in what reports called its worst session since the 1970s.

The selling was not even. Energy and staples rose, and six of eleven S and P 500 sectors finished higher. Investors cut what they will pay for artificial intelligence spending, while daily needs held up.

Crypto overnight: a small bounce after a hard month

Crypto steadied into Saturday morning, October 31. Delayed snapshots put Bitcoin near 77,498 dollars, up 0.74 percent, Ether near 2,250.68 dollars, up 1.24 percent, and Solana near 95.85 dollars, up 1.07 percent.

Friday was harder. Close reports put Bitcoin down 2.99 percent to 76,746 dollars and Ether down 1.42 percent to 2,239 dollars, after a reported 6.3 billion dollar hack at Binance. October was worse. Coinpedia put total crypto value at 2.58 trillion dollars on October 31, down from 2.94 trillion on October 1. Bitcoin fell from 87,220 dollars to near 77,300 dollars, down 11.37 percent for the month. Liquidations reached 1.54 billion dollars in 24 hours on October 30.

Key numbers

Nasdaq: down 2.86 percent to 25,437.00. S and P 500: down 1.82 percent to 7,580.07. Dow: down 1.09 percent to 51,770.31. Intel: down 28.58 percent. Brent: up 2.4 percent to 117.64 dollars a barrel. United States crude: up 2.08 percent to 104.12 dollars. Gold: down 3.63 percent to 3,884.90 dollars an ounce, a one year low. Silver: down 5.86 percent to 49.14 dollars. Ten year yield: 4.93 percent, down from 4.98 percent. For October, the Nasdaq fell 5.3 percent, the S and P 500 fell 0.9 percent and the Dow rose 1.7 percent.

Oil rose, gold fell, and the two moves pull opposite ways

Oil settled at six month highs on Friday. Reuters reported December Brent rose 2.76 dollars, or 2.4 percent, to 117.64 dollars a barrel, after touching 118 dollars. January Brent gained 2.63 dollars to 113.43 dollars. United States crude rose 2.12 dollars to 104.12 dollars. For October, Brent rose 13.6 percent and United States crude rose 15.2 percent. Traders cited fears of escalation in the Iran war after the midterm elections and an attack on a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz.

Gold went the other way, to its lowest level in about a year, and silver dropped below 50 dollars for the first time in months. Oil rising on war risk while gold falls is not one simple safety trade. The market is paying up for fuel and taking profit on a metal that had run far.

The finance story: refining paid at Exxon and Chevron

ExxonMobil and Chevron both beat profit forecasts on Friday, and refining did the work. Reuters reported Exxon adjusted earnings of 4.23 dollars a share, against 4.08 dollars expected, and Chevron adjusted earnings of 5.28 dollars a share, against 4.89 dollars expected. Exxon net income was 15.4 billion dollars. Refining earned 7.17 billion dollars, ahead of 7.09 billion from oil and gas production, the first time refining led in at least six years. Chevron earned 9.9 billion dollars. Its downstream business earned 4.93 billion dollars, up from 1.14 billion a year earlier, and its United States refineries ran a record 1.09 million barrels a day at nearly 98 percent of capacity. Exxon shares closed up 2.16 percent, Chevron up 1.75 percent.

High fuel prices lift refinery margins and raise costs for families and truckers. Exxon finance chief Neil Hansen told Reuters that higher prices put real pressure on families and businesses, and that the company response was to raise supply.

What this means for savings, retirement accounts and mortgages

For savings, the fall in the ten year yield to 4.93 percent matters over time. Savings rates follow market rates with a lag. One lower day does not cut a rate at once, but a run of lower yields would.

For a 401(k), October showed why the mix matters. A fund heavy in large technology stocks felt the Nasdaq fall of 5.3 percent. A broader fund felt less, because energy, staples and health care rose on Friday and the Dow rose 1.7 percent in October. Of 299 reporting S and P 500 firms, 82 percent beat estimates, on LSEG data cited in close reports.

For mortgages, two forces pull apart. Lower yields can ease long term borrowing costs. Higher oil can lift inflation and keep central banks firm. The Federal Reserve held rates on October 28. The Bank of England decides Thursday, November 5, with markets expecting a rise of 0.25 points to 4.0 percent from 3.75 percent.

The week ahead

OPEC plus meets Sunday, November 1, with oil at six month highs. Voters choose the whole House and a third of the Senate in the midterms on Tuesday, November 3. Apple and Palantir report Monday, November 2. The Bank of England decides Thursday. The October jobs report is due Friday, November 6.

This is not financial advice. Do your own due diligence.