Isaias weakens to remnant as 'sting jet' slams coast at 117 mph

Updated 21:19 UTC. Florida has formally asked President Donald Trump for a federal major disaster declaration for Hurricane Isaias, the step that would open individual federal help to Panhandle households. Governor Ron DeSantis announced on Friday that the Florida Division of Emergency Management has submitted the request, which seeks public assistance for local governments in 15 counties and individual assistance for residents in eight Northwest Florida counties, including Escambia and Santa Rosa. DeSantis said the state filed the request at 8 p.m. on October 15, less than a week after Isaias made landfall, and that he had not yet spoken directly to Trump about it.

The damage figures behind the request are large. Santa Rosa County residents had reported more than 165 million dollars in estimated damage to private property by October 15, in more than 2,500 reports filed through the county property appraiser. More than 80 structures were classed as destroyed, about 300 had major damage, more than 600 had minor damage and more than 2,000 were affected. The city of Milton alone estimates 15 million dollars in damage to city property. Escambia County put its early estimate of public damage at 64 million dollars, and Pensacola officials put damage to city residents at about 70 million dollars.

DeSantis also said the state is partnering with Emergency RV to provide temporary housing for Floridians displaced by the storm, so families can stay in their own communities while they rebuild. The request is now in the president's hands. A limited emergency declaration signed before landfall covered 27 Florida counties and pays 75 percent of the cost of direct federal assistance, but it opened no help at the local or individual level. Only a major disaster declaration can do that, and residents cannot apply for individual assistance until one is signed.

*Updated 22:15 UTC, Tuesday: Mail service resumes across the Panhandle as schools stay shut*

Daily life inched back toward normal in Northwest Florida on Tuesday, even as the cleanup from Isaias continued. The U.S. Postal Service resumed mail service and operations on Oct. 13 in the communities hit by the storm, the Pensacola News Journal reported. The suspension had covered 60 ZIP codes, all in the Panhandle. In its own service alert, the Postal Service said the Pensacola processing center has reopened and most delivery units in the 324 and 325 ZIP code areas are back, though six locations, in Gonzalez, Milton, Pensacola, Shalimar and Valparaiso, remain suspended until further notice, and some areas may still see delivery delays.

The storm's death toll stands at five: two in Escambia County, two in Alabama and one in South Carolina. Forecasters say the strongest reported gust reached 117 mph at Oriole Beach. More than 100,000 Florida customers were still without power as of 4 a.m. Tuesday, most of them in Escambia and Santa Rosa counties.

Schools remain the biggest disruption for families. According to the Florida Department of Education, Santa Rosa County schools will stay closed until Monday, Oct. 19. Escambia County schools remained closed Tuesday, Oct. 13, and the district has not yet decided when to reopen. Okaloosa County and Walton County schools reopen Wednesday, Oct. 14. The University of West Florida remains closed until further notice.

*Updated 02:23 UTC, Tuesday: Death toll rises to five, at least eight tornadoes confirmed*

The confirmed death toll from Isaias rose to five on Monday with a death in South Carolina. Christopher John Miller, 67, died on Sunday, Oct. 11, in Ninety Six, in Greenwood County, after a large tree fell on his home during the storm remnants, the county coroner said. He was pronounced dead at 12:21 p.m. Sunday, and the coroner ruled the death accidental, caused by blunt force trauma. The earlier confirmed deaths were two in Florida and two in Alabama.

CBS News reported Monday that the storm remnants spun off at least eight confirmed tornadoes in Georgia and the Carolinas, including one that tore the roof off a home about 90 miles west of Charleston. Weather Service survey crews in Georgia confirmed an EF1 tornado with 105 mph winds in Screven County, where a tree fell on a mobile home, and an EF0 tornado in the same county.

In Milton, Florida, some of the strongest inland gusts brought down a large tree onto the home of Phyllis Hennebery, 77, while she was resting in her room. She survived and showed CBS the damage in her ceiling. "I never expected to be 77 years old and go through this," she said. Neighbors and a local church group were handing out food and water in the area, CBS reported.

Power restoration kept moving Monday, but the totals were still large. Reuters, citing PowerOutage.us, put Florida at 149,345 customers without power on Monday, with 112,021 of them Florida Power and Light customers. Escambia County was hardest hit at 67,573, followed by Santa Rosa County at 47,443 and Walton County at 17,218. Alabama had 21,544 customers out.

*Updated 15:45 UTC, Monday: Destin at 80 percent power as Monday deadline nears*

Destin Mayor Bobby Wagner said Monday morning that about 80 percent of power is back in the city and water service is fully restored, telling Newsmax that crews expect to have the streets cleared of debris by the end of the day. Trees tangled in power lines are the biggest remaining danger, he said, and specialty crews are mobilizing to handle them.

Florida Power and Light expects 85 percent of affected customers who can safely accept power to have it back by the end of Monday. The hardest-hit areas of Escambia and Santa Rosa counties should come back online Monday in most cases, with the rest following Tuesday, according to the company's outage tracker.

In Okaloosa County, 7,323 outages remained as of 9:15 a.m. Monday, about 5.9 percent of accounts. The county lifted its evacuation orders at midday Sunday. Schools stay closed Tuesday and reopen Wednesday, and a distribution site at the Crestview Public Library is handing out water, tarps and ready-to-eat meals to North Okaloosa residents.

Gov. Ron DeSantis visited a Milton Waffle House on Sunday and said FPL had restored power to 300,000 of the roughly 500,000 customers who lost it. He called north Santa Rosa County the hardest-hit area. Agriculture Secretary Wilton Simpson said peanut and cotton crops were severely damaged and that short-term bridge loans are available for farmers.

Striking photos from Saturday showed the scale of the damage: an apartment complex in Milton with its roof blown off while residents were inside, a gas station canopy ripped apart in East Milton, a damaged airplane at Peter Prince Field, a boat resting on dry land in Fort Walton Beach and a collapsed boat house in Destin. The confirmed death toll holds at four, two in Florida and two in Alabama.

*Updated 22:14 UTC, Sunday: Remnants soak the East Coast as FPL aims for Monday power comeback*

The remnants of Isaias spent Sunday dumping heavy rain up the East Coast. Flash-flood and urban-flooding risks covered the central Appalachians and the mid-Atlantic, the National Weather Service said, with tornadoes possible in parts of Virginia and North Carolina. Life-threatening surf and rip currents continued along the Gulf and southeastern Atlantic coasts.

In Burke County, North Carolina, county emergency crews pulled two unhoused people and their dog from the rising Catawba River behind a high school just after 8 a.m. Sunday. The pair had been camping when the water rose and caught them off guard. All three were safe, county emergency management said.

Philippe Papin, a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center in Miami, said forecasters expected the heavy rain to continue Sunday across the central Appalachians and into the mid-Atlantic, with isolated flash and urban flooding possible.

Back on the Gulf Coast, Florida Power and Light said it expects 95 percent of customers who can safely accept power to have it back by the end of Monday. As of 5 a.m. Sunday, about 105,770 customers in Escambia County, 74,410 in Santa Rosa County and 31,659 in Okaloosa County were still dark. The company said it has restored power to 111,570 customers in the three counties since the storm arrived, with roughly 14,000 workers in 16-hour shifts across the area. The confirmed death toll stands at four, two in Florida and two in Alabama.

*Updated 14:17 UTC, Sunday: Isaias remnants push into the Northeast, outages keep falling*

Isaias was done with the Gulf Coast by Sunday morning, but its remnants were not done with the East Coast. The leftover storm was pushing into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City all in line for a soggy end to the weekend, Fox Weather reported. Flood watches stayed in effect for parts of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic into Monday.

Power crews kept winning ground overnight. More than 400,000 customers were still without electricity Saturday evening across the Southeast, down from a peak near 900,000 earlier in the day, according to Fox Weather. The death toll held at four, two in Florida and two in Alabama, with no new fatalities reported.

*Updated 03:15 UTC, Sunday: Power restoration under way as death toll holds at four*

Power crews began making headway Saturday night as outage totals fell from nearly 900,000 Saturday morning to about 600,000 by the evening, according to outage tracker PowerOutage.com, cited by the Wall Street Journal. Florida Power and Light said it expects 95 percent of affected customers who can safely accept power to be restored by the end of Monday. As of 7:30 p.m. local time, 122,830 customers were still without power in Escambia County, 78,590 in Santa Rosa County and 44,740 in Okaloosa County, the company said.

Officials gave a clearer picture of how four people died. In Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis said one victim was killed when a tree fell on a house and another was found dead in a garage with a generator running. Four other people in Escambia County were hospitalized for carbon monoxide poisoning. DeSantis urged residents never to run generators indoors. In Alabama, Gov. Kay Ivey confirmed two deaths, both from trees falling on homes.

The post-tropical storm was about five miles west of Birmingham at 5 p.m. ET, moving northeast at 15 mph toward the Tennessee Valley. Pensacola International Airport remained closed to commercial flights because of storm damage, and flood watches stayed in effect for parts of the Tennessee Valley into Sunday.

*Updated 23:40 UTC, Saturday: 'Sting jet' drove Isaias's worst gusts*

Meteorologists now say a rare phenomenon called a "sting jet" produced some of Isaias's most destructive winds, the National Weather Service told USA Today. The jet formed when dry air ran into the storm's sharp western edge, sending cold air plunging to the surface at near-tornado speed.

The sting jet drove a 117-mph gust on Santa Rosa Island and a 114-mph gust at NAS Whiting Field in Milton, winds that rivaled the strongest gusts Hurricane Ivan produced in the same Florida counties. A research team from Texas Tech recorded 116 mph on Pensacola Beach. One unofficial reading hit 145 mph from a sailboat anchored in Wolf Bay, Alabama. The Weather Service has not confirmed any tornadoes, but officials said the sting jet produced tornado-like damage across the western side of the storm.

The damage toll grew clearer through the day. On Pensacola Beach, a townhouse wall collapsed onto a rental unit with no one inside, siding was torn off the Emerald Isle condo building, and two towers of the Portofino complex suffered broken windows and balcony damage. The island remained without power Saturday evening, and water was not expected back until at least Sunday. A visitor who rode out the storm on a kitchen floor in one tower described the building swaying.

Central Alabama escaped the worst. Prattville's mayor said the city was very fortunate, and emergency managers in Elmore County reported gusts of only 48 mph with about 7,800 brief outages at the storm's peak. Montgomery recorded just over three inches of rain and reported no significant damage.

Public schools in Florida's Escambia and Santa Rosa counties will stay closed Monday for damage assessments. Post-tropical Isaias kept moving north over Alabama on Saturday evening, with flood watches in effect into Sunday for parts of the Tennessee Valley. Forecasters warned of up to 10 inches of rain in Georgia and the Carolinas.

*Updated 20:45 UTC, Saturday: Death toll rises to four as Isaias pushes inland*

The death toll from Isaias doubled Saturday as the post-tropical remnants of the storm ground north through Alabama. Four people are dead, two in Alabama and two in Florida, and nearly 630,000 customers remained without power Saturday afternoon across Alabama, Florida and Georgia, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Two of the deaths were in Alabama, Gov. Kay Ivey said, without releasing details. Authorities said earlier that one was caused by a tree falling on a house.

In Florida, a woman died in Escambia County when a tree crashed through her home and pinned her beneath it; she was dead by the time fire rescue arrived, county sheriff's office spokeswoman Melony Peterson said. A second person was found dead in a garage with a generator running, Gov. Ron DeSantis said, and four members of that family were hospitalized. "Don't run the generator inside, it's something that can be fatal," DeSantis warned.

The storm's center was moving north over Alabama with winds near 35 mph Saturday afternoon, downgraded to a post-tropical cyclone. Forecasters expect it to reach the Tennessee Valley later Saturday and turn northeast Sunday. Up to 8 more inches of rain could fall over the weekend across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southwest Georgia, and rivers in the western Panhandle could flood, the National Weather Service said.

*Updated 18:28 UTC, Saturday: New detail on the Big Bend blow-through*

North Florida's cleanup got a clearer picture Saturday. In Tallahassee, firefighters answered a call on Cavalcade Trail minutes after Isaias came ashore: a tree had fallen on a house and set it on fire. Crews found smoke coming from the eaves and flames through the roof, with downed power lines nearby, and brought it under control despite heavy rain and wind, the Tallahassee Fire Department said. No one was hurt; the owner was outside, and the American Red Cross is assisting.

A feeder band parked over Madison and Taylor counties and dumped what forecasters called an extremely hazardous band of deluge before sliding east. A weather station near Jay recorded a 118 mph gust, showing the eyewall's power even after it moved inland, Fox Weather reported.

FEMA Region 4 Administrator Rob Ashe is at the State Emergency Operations Center in Tallahassee coordinating disaster staging assets and supply deliveries across the Panhandle, with ground-level damage assessments already underway. Florida CFO Blaise Ingoglia is setting up pop-up insurance villages so residents can get claims adjudicated quickly, Gov. Ron DeSantis said at his Saturday briefing.

More than 850,000 customers remained without power across Florida, Alabama and Georgia Saturday afternoon, and DeSantis said the flooding story is not over.

*Updated 16:56 UTC, Saturday: Outages top 850,000 as restoration begins*

Post-tropical Isaias kept pushing inland across the Southeast on Saturday afternoon, with more than 850,000 customers without power in Florida, Alabama and Georgia, the BBC reported. Other tallies ran a little higher: more than 858,000 homes and businesses across the three states were dark Saturday morning, according to PowerOutage.us figures carried by weather.com.

Florida had the largest share at about 436,000 customers, followed by Alabama with roughly 297,000 and Georgia with about 95,000.

Crews were already making progress. Nearly 100,000 homes and businesses had power restored by 10:30 a.m. ET, USA Today reported, down from about 900,000 an hour earlier.

Reuters reported that highways, bridges and airports were reopening as teams assessed damage. Florida staged 16,000 utility linemen ahead of the storm, Gov. Ron DeSantis said.

The danger is not over. The National Hurricane Center warned of continued flash-flood risk across southern Alabama, the Florida Panhandle and southwestern Georgia, and a tornado threat Saturday across the Panhandle, Georgia and the Carolinas. A flash flood warning was in effect for part of Atlanta until 1:15 p.m. EDT.

*Updated 16:15 UTC, Saturday: Cleanup begins as new storm details emerge*

More detail emerged Saturday afternoon on Isaias's path across the Gulf Coast. In Birmingham, a tree fell on a home on Monterey Drive after midnight, trapping two people; one was pronounced dead at the scene, Birmingham Fire and Rescue said. There was no immediate word on the condition of the second person.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins said about 900,000 people evacuated ahead of the storm. The state staged 16,000 utility linemen to restore power, Gov. Ron DeSantis said at a morning briefing.

Nearly 900,000 customers remained without power Saturday morning across Alabama, Florida and Georgia, according to outage tracker PowerOutage.com, the Wall Street Journal reported.

Tallahassee was spared the worst despite sitting on the storm's eastern side. The airport recorded 2.77 inches of rain through midnight. The Franklin County jail lost power when its backup generator failed. Flood warnings are in effect for the Ochlockonee River near State Road 20 and the St. Marks River near Newport. Both rivers are expected to crest near or above levels that flood nearby homes.

In Alabama, all roads in Houston County were closed until further notice, the state emergency management agency said, calling travel hazardous because of downed trees and power lines.

Isaias was the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 and the first U.S. landfall in two years, breaking a streak that dated to Hurricane Milton in October 2024.

*Updated 14:30 UTC, Saturday: Post-tropical Isaias pushes into Alabama, death toll rises to two*

Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias is charging inland over Alabama on Saturday morning, and the confirmed death toll has risen to two. A tree fell on a home in Birmingham, killing one person, according to reports from the New York Times, AL.com and WVTM 13, which cite Jefferson County emergency management and the Birmingham fire department. A second death was confirmed in Escambia County, Florida, authorities told USA Today.

The National Hurricane Center issued its final advisory on Isaias at 4 a.m. CT Saturday, when the storm was a post-tropical cyclone with 35 mph winds about 40 miles south-southwest of Montgomery. The remnants were expected to reach the Tennessee Valley later Saturday and turn northeast on Sunday.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said at an Oct. 10 morning briefing that the storm had left Florida but the flooding story is not over, with 4 to 8 inches of rain forecast across the Panhandle and Big Bend. He said 448,000 accounts were without power at 7 a.m. ET, mainly in northwest Florida, and that all state-owned bridges had reopened along with Interstate 10 and U.S. 98. No search-and-rescue requests had been received, which he called an optimistic sign.

More than a foot of rain fell in Bellwood, Alabama, and Defuniak Springs, Florida, Fox Weather reported. A Level 3-of-4 flash flood risk covers northern Georgia and the Blue Ridge on Saturday, including Atlanta and Asheville.

President Donald Trump said his administration was watching the storm closely and called it under control, Reuters reported.

*Developing story: Updated 13:07 UTC, Saturday*

Isaias came ashore near Destin, Florida, around 8:30 p.m. Central time Friday as a Category 2 hurricane with 105 mph sustained winds, the National Hurricane Center said. By late Friday night it had weakened to a Category 1 with 90 mph winds as it pushed inland, and by Saturday morning it was a post-tropical cyclone: the Hurricane Center issued its final advisory around 4 a.m. Central time, when the storm sat about 40 miles south-southwest of Montgomery, Alabama, with winds down to 35 mph.

More than 600,000 customers across Florida, Alabama and Georgia lost power. Outage trackers showed over 450,000 without electricity in Florida alone, with the hardest hits in Panhandle counties: Walton at 95 percent, Liberty at 97 percent, Escambia at 73 percent, Okaloosa at 67 percent and Bay at 39 percent. Alabama and Georgia counted tens of thousands more outages, and utilities warned repairs could take days for many customers.

Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins told Fox News the storm "hit like a freight train," and said about 900,000 people evacuated before landfall. In Alabama, Houston County closed all roads after downed trees and power lines made travel hazardous. In Pensacola, a police officer pulled a man from a burning house after regular emergency response had been suspended for high winds; both were treated for smoke inhalation.

The danger is now spreading inland. Forecasters issued a rare Level 4 flash flood threat, the highest category, for parts of the Florida Panhandle, the Big Bend, southern Georgia and southeastern Alabama, warning of 10 or more inches of rain and life-threatening flash flooding into Saturday morning. President Donald Trump approved federal disaster assistance for 27 Florida counties, with FEMA authorized to provide emergency protective measures at 75 percent federal funding.

Wind reports traced the storm's violent arrival. A station near Santa Rosa Sound measured a 116 mph gust, and a gauge at Panama City Beach recorded water 5.6 feet above mean higher high water. Isaias is the first U.S. hurricane landfall since Hurricane Milton struck Siesta Key, Florida, exactly two years earlier, on Oct. 9, 2024. Confirmed casualty and damage details were not yet available early Saturday; this story will be updated as verified information emerges.

Landfall imminent: Isaias weakened to a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds as its northern eyewall came ashore on the Florida Panhandle, the National Hurricane Center said in its 7 p.m. CT advisory. The center was about 40 miles south of Pensacola. The National Weather Service issued an Extreme Wind Warning for coastal Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, and Walton counties, with gusts up to 115 mph possible through 9 p.m. CT, and forecasters expect landfall near Destin within the next two hours. Top gusts so far include 92 mph in Pensacola and 76 mph in Destin, and storm surge was already pushing four feet above normal high tide at Panama City Beach. Earlier, NHC deputy director Jamie Rhome warned conditions were going downhill "very, very rapidly," and about two million people across the Panhandle and southern Georgia are under a tornado watch, USA Today reported.

Night update: Isaias is lashing the northern Gulf Coast with strong winds and heavy rain as its center closes in on landfall, forecasters said Friday evening. The storm's center is expected to come ashore late tonight between Mobile, Alabama, and Grayton Beach, Florida, most likely between 9 and 11 p.m. ET. Tens of thousands of people across the Florida Panhandle and Alabama's Gulf Coast are under mandatory evacuation orders, and highways heading north were packed with evacuees, Reuters reported. "If you've been asked to evacuate, get out now, conditions are only going to deteriorate," National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan told Fox Weather. Brennan warned the storm surge would arrive after dark, a dangerous combination. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis urged residents to assume they would lose power and added: "you hide from the wind, but you run from the water." President Donald Trump canceled a planned Saturday trip to Tuscaloosa, Alabama, where he had planned to attend the Georgia-Alabama college football game. Oil companies have evacuated crews from 129 production platforms in the Gulf, about 35 percent of the 371 staffed platforms. After landfall, the storm is expected to weaken and push north toward Atlanta, where it could drop up to 8 inches of rain, before downgrading to a tropical storm Saturday afternoon.

Evening update: As of 6 p.m. ET, Isaias was centered about 70 miles south of Pensacola with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph, moving north at around 17 mph, the National Hurricane Center said. Hurricane-force wind gusts were already being felt along the northern Gulf Coast, and forecasters expect the storm to be at or near major-hurricane strength at landfall this evening. The hurricane center boosted its storm surge forecast to up to 9 feet from the Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach, and warned of 4 to 8 inches of rain, up to 15 inches locally, across the Panhandle and Big Bend, with isolated tornadoes possible overnight.

Hurricane Isaias has strengthened into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph, just-received data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft showed Friday morning, the National Hurricane Center said. As of 8 a.m. ET, the storm was centered about 170 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north-northeast at 15 mph. The hurricane center expects landfall near Pensacola, Florida, tonight, the storm's center was forecast about 30 miles south of Pensacola Beach around 7 p.m. ET, with landfall following a couple of hours later at roughly 100 mph with higher gusts.

Forecasters expect Isaias to reach Category 3 strength during the day Friday, peaking near 120 mph, before increasing wind shear weakens it somewhat ahead of landfall, but it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall. "Preparations should be rushed to completion as the weather will go downhill quickly today," the hurricane center said early Friday.

As of 8 a.m. ET, the center of Isaias was about 170 miles south-southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north-northeast at 15 mph. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles, the hurricane center said.

Warnings stretch across the northern Gulf

A hurricane warning is in effect from Ocean Springs, Mississippi, to the Bay/Gulf County line in Florida, meaning hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours. A storm surge warning covers the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Suwannee River in Florida, where forecasters warn of life-threatening inundation of 5 to 7 feet above normally dry ground in the hardest-hit areas.

Tropical storm warnings extend from the Jefferson/Plaquemines Parish line in Louisiana to west of Ocean Springs, and east of the Bay/Gulf County line to the Aucilla River in Florida. A storm surge watch is in effect from the Suwannee River to Yankeetown.

Rainfall of 3 to 7 inches is expected across the region, with isolated totals of 10 inches. Tornadoes are also possible as the storm moves ashore. The National Weather Service warned communities from Ocean Springs to Gulf County, Florida, to prepare for the possibility of long-duration power outages.

Evacuations and emergencies

Mandatory evacuations are in effect across Florida's Panhandle. Okaloosa County ordered residents of coastal Zones A and B to leave starting at noon Thursday; Escambia and Santa Rosa counties issued evacuation orders for Zones A and B; Franklin County ordered evacuations for barrier islands, low-lying areas, mobile homes and RV parks; and Walton County ordered evacuations in zones A, B and C. Bay County issued a voluntary evacuation for Zones A and B. Tourists were urged to leave the area, and Okaloosa County planned to close three airports Thursday evening.

In Alabama, Dauphin Island ordered an evacuation of the western part of the barrier island Thursday evening, and Baldwin County encouraged residents of low-lying coastal areas to evacuate voluntarily, with shelters prepared.

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency in 25 counties, and Alabama Gov. Kay Ivey declared a state of emergency covering 40 counties. In Mississippi, Jackson County and the city of Gautier declared local emergencies. At least four Florida school districts canceled classes, according to the Associated Press.

Why it matters

Isaias is the first Atlantic hurricane of the 2026 season and the ninth named storm. It became a hurricane shortly before midnight on October 7, nearly tying the record for the latest-arriving first Atlantic hurricane, a mark set on October 8, 1905. A strong El Niño pattern has suppressed Atlantic development this year by increasing vertical wind shear, which tears apart forming storms.

The storm is already disrupting energy production. About 62.9 percent of daily Gulf of Mexico oil production, roughly 1.28 million barrels per day, was shut in Thursday, along with 57.4 percent of natural gas output, as operators evacuated 121 production platforms, nearly a third of the 371 manned platforms in the Gulf. Shell and Chevron said they were curtailing offshore operations.

What happens next

Isaias has now reached major-hurricane strength, and forecasters expect it to touch Category 3 during the day Friday, peaking near 120 mph, before increasing wind shear weakens it somewhat ahead of landfall; it is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall. The projected landfall zone stretches from Mobile, Alabama, to Panama City, Florida, with the Pensacola area near the center of the forecast cone.

"We are expecting Isaias to be a dangerous hurricane when it makes landfall," NHC Director Michael Brennan said Thursday. "Today is the day to prepare and get ready."

Key numbers

• 117 mph: strongest sting-jet gust, Santa Rosa Island (rivaled Hurricane Ivan's 107 mph in the same counties)

• 110 mph: maximum sustained winds at 7 p.m. CT (Category 2)
• 40 miles: center's distance south of Pensacola at 7 p.m. CT
• 115 mph: maximum gusts under Extreme Wind Warning (coastal Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton) through 9 p.m. CT
• 4 feet: surge already above normal high tide at Panama City Beach
• 9 feet: forecast storm surge, Alabama-Florida border to Grayton Beach
• 4–15 inches: forecast rainfall (15 inches locally)
• ~8 p.m. ET: expected landfall near Destin
• 129: Gulf production platforms evacuated (~35% of staffed platforms)
• 963 mb: minimum central pressure