Brazil Votes in Tight Presidential Runoff Between Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro

Updated 22:20 UTC

President Donald Trump said on Monday, without citing evidence, that Brazil's presidential runoff looked like another rigged election, Reuters reported. Trump told reporters before flying to Mississippi for a campaign rally: "I didn't take sides, but it looked like another rigged election. Elections have to be indisputable, and it looked very bad to me." USA TODAY reported that Trump also said: "I thought it had a very bad look, the way it was tabulated," and called the two hour extension of voting very strange. Both candidates had asked for voting hours to be extended, USA TODAY reported, and Trump said he had not formally endorsed in the contest and that his criticism was not a personal slight against President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. The Associated Press reported that leaders across the region, including conservative presidents who oppose Lula, have acknowledged the result, and that early signs from Brazil's institutions suggest the result will be respected. The defeated candidate, Flavio Bolsonaro, has already said he will seek an annulment of the runoff, as reported in the updates below.

Updated 15:21 UTC

Brazil's benchmark Ibovespa index fell 17 percent to 169,516 points on Monday, a two month low, after trading resumed following the circuit breaker halt triggered at a 10 percent fall, The Wall Street Journal reported. The dollar jumped more than 12 percent against the real to a 10 month high of 5.6055 shortly after the market opened, according to LSEG data reported by the Journal. The iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell 25 percent in early trade and was on track for its biggest one day fall on record, the Journal reported. Sweden Herald, citing TT and Bloomberg, reported the index was down 16 percent an hour after the half hour halt ended and quoted an analyst describing the development as a "tsunami hitting all Brazilian assets".

In New York, shares in the fintech Nu Holdings fell 21 percent, while the e commerce group MercadoLibre fell 10 percent, the Journal reported. "Markets had largely expected a Bolsonaro victory, so part of the reaction reflects investors rapidly reversing their positions rather than a sudden deterioration in Brazil's economy," eToro market strategist Lale Akoner said in a note quoted by the Journal. "We expect volatility to continue, particularly as concerns over government spending could keep borrowing costs high," Akoner said.

Updated 14:25 UTC

Trading on Brazil's stock exchange was halted for 30 minutes on Monday after the benchmark Ibovespa index fell 10 percent from its previous close, triggering the circuit breaker safety mechanism, Reuters reported, citing a statement by exchange operator B3. The real weakened around 12 percent against the US dollar in spot trading as trading got underway, and Ibovespa futures tumbled nearly 15 percent, while interest rate futures rose sharply, Reuters reported. Brazil's Treasury cancelled its regular auctions of inflation linked and fixed rate government bonds scheduled for October 27 and October 29, Reuters reported. The selloff extended to Brazil's international bonds, with longer dated debt hit hardest and the 2056 maturity down nearly 3 cents, Reuters reported.

Updated 14:23 UTC

Brazilian markets fell sharply on Monday as investors reacted to President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's upset runoff victory. The Brazilian real slid 12 percent against the dollar, according to LSEG data reported by The Wall Street Journal, and the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF fell 27 percent in premarket trading, putting it on track for the largest decline in its 26 year history, the Journal reported.

US listed shares of Brazilian companies were hit across the board in early trading. XP fell nearly 50 percent in premarket trading, also on track for a record daily loss, and the American depositary receipts of state oil company Petrobras fell 20 percent, the Journal reported. MercadoLibre, the Latin American ecommerce and payments company for which Brazil is the biggest market, fell more than 10 percent, and brewer Ambev lost more than 10 percent in early trading. Barron's reported similar falls in premarket trade, with XP down 46 percent, Itau Unibanco down 28 percent and Petrobras down 23 percent.

The selloff reversed a rally built on the expectation that Flavio Bolsonaro, who won the first round on October 4, would go on to win the runoff. It was the first time since the return to direct democratic elections in 1989 that a first round winner did not win the runoff, Barron's reported. The final count gave Lula 51.8 percent of the vote against 48.2 percent for Bolsonaro, Investor's Business Daily reported. Analysts quoted by Barron's pointed to Brazil's public finances, with gross debt at about 87 percent of gross domestic product according to International Monetary Fund data, and warned that Brazilian bond yields could rise sharply in the coming days.

Updated 02:50 UTC

Senator Flavio Bolsonaro said on Sunday night that he would not concede defeat and would seek the annulment of the runoff election, Reuters reported. Bolsonaro called the ruling by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extending voting by two hours "unacceptable", Reuters reported. Speaking to supporters in Brasilia after Lula's victory was declared, Bolsonaro said: "It is impossible to recognize the election result given how these events unfolded," CNN reported. "We will take legal action. We will ask for this election to be annulled." Voting was extended by two hours after requests from both campaigns, CNN reported. Lula's campaign cited incidents affecting buses that provide transportation to polling venues in several states, and Bolsonaro's campaign cited difficulties voters faced reaching polling stations because of heavy rain. The extension order came around 5 p.m. Brasilia time, just as polls were scheduled to close, and many stations had already shut down, CNN reported.

Updated 00:30 UTC

Brazil's electoral authority, the TSE, declared on Sunday night that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won the presidential runoff, defeating Senator Flavio Bolsonaro to secure a fourth non-consecutive term, Reuters reported. The declaration replaces the Datafolha projection reported earlier in the night with the official result. Lula's new term is scheduled to begin on January 5, 2027.

The count that produced the declaration had Lula ahead through the late stages. With 80.02 percent of voting sections counted, the TSE figures carried by Depor had Lula at 51.27 percent of valid votes, with 50,706,005 votes, against 48.73 percent and 48,190,618 votes for Bolsonaro. With 91 percent counted, Lula had 51.62 percent to 48.38 percent for Bolsonaro, TMC reported. Le Monde reported Lula at 51.75 percent of the votes as the count neared its end.

Markets reacted within minutes of the result. Investor's Business Daily reported that the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF, known as EWZ, fell nearly 20 percent in Sunday night trading on Robinhood, that state oil company Petrobras fell 14 percent, and that MercadoLibre fell 5 percent. Those figures come from the thin Sunday night trading reported by IBD, not from a regular market session, and prices may change when regular trading opens on Monday.

Updated 00:10 UTC

Datafolha projected on Sunday night that President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva won Brazil's presidential runoff against Senator Flavio Bolsonaro and will start a fourth term on January 5, 2027, Reuters reported. When the projection was published, the Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, had counted 75.24 percent of voting sections, with Lula at 51.09 percent of valid votes and Bolsonaro at 48.91 percent, according to the official count reported by Reuters. TMC also reported the Datafolha projection of Lula's re-election.

Counting continued after the projection. By about 9 p.m. Brasilia time, with 91 percent of sections counted, Lula had 51.62 percent of valid votes and Bolsonaro had 48.38 percent, TMC reported. Lula had retaken the lead at about 8:30 p.m. Brasilia time, with 47 percent of sections counted, after Bolsonaro led through much of the early count, TMC reported. The TSE count was still running when the projection appeared, and the projection is the Datafolha call based on the official count, not a final declaration by the TSE. If the result holds, it would be the first time since 1989 that a candidate who finished second in the first round went on to win a presidential runoff, TMC reported. Bolsonaro won the first round on October 4 with 47.03 percent of valid votes to 45.16 percent for Lula.

Updated 23:12 UTC

Counting in Brazil's presidential runoff resumed on Sunday night after Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin extended voting by two hours and the Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, paused the count while the extended voting finished, Reuters and the Associated Press reported. With 5.02 percent of ballots tallied after counting resumed, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had 51.16 percent of valid votes and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro had 48.84 percent, according to the official results reported by Reuters. No winner has been declared, and the early figures cover only a small share of the vote.

Zanin ruled at about 5 p.m. Brasilia time, just as polls were due to close, after Lula's campaign asked for more time and pointed to public transportation problems in three cities in Bahia state, Reuters reported. He later clarified that polling stations that had already closed would stay closed, while stations still open could keep receiving voters for two more hours, the Associated Press reported. The count had already begun when the ruling landed, and at 0.25 percent counted Lula had 57.66 percent to 42.34 percent for Bolsonaro in the early tally reported by AAP.

In Salvador, the capital of Bahia, a state electoral judge ordered the arrest of Pablo Souza, the city's mobility secretary, after at least 75 public buses were prevented from leaving municipal garages on Sunday, the Associated Press reported. Lula's campaign alleged that officials in some cities reduced election day public transportation to keep voters from the polls, and Lula said before the ruling that "something abominable is happening" in the election, Reuters reported. Flavio Bolsonaro's campaign also asked for voting to be extended in at least three states, citing bad weather, Reuters reported. The Organization of American States election mission said it is monitoring reports of public transportation problems, the Associated Press reported. Two legal experts told Reuters the extension could lead the losing side to challenge the result in court.

Brazilians vote on Sunday, October 25, 2026, in a presidential runoff between President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro. Polling stations were scheduled to open at 8 a.m. Brasilia time and close at 5 p.m. The Superior Electoral Court, known as the TSE, plans to begin publishing the count at 5 p.m., as results arrive from electronic voting machines.

A first round that settled nothing

Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, led the first round on October 4, 2026. The TSE figures reported by MercoPress gave him 47.03 percent of valid votes and Lula 45.16 percent. Neither reached the majority needed to win outright, so the race moved to a runoff. The Guardian reported that the gap was the narrowest ever recorded in a Brazilian first round.

Reuters noted that no candidate has ever won the Brazilian presidency after finishing second in the first round. Lula is seeking a fourth term. Bolsonaro is the eldest son of former President Jair Bolsonaro, who governed from 2019 to 2022.

Final polls pointed to a dead heat

Datafolha surveyed 4,050 people from October 23 to October 24 and put Bolsonaro at 48 percent and Lula at 47 percent, with a margin of error of 2 points. CNT/MDA surveyed 2,032 people from October 21 to October 23 and put Bolsonaro at 46.3 percent and Lula at 45.0 percent, with a margin of error of 2.2 points. A Reuters roundup on October 24 said the candidates were about even, with Lula closing the gap in the last days.

A campaign fought over crime, prices and the past

Reuters reported that the race was dominated by corruption scandals, economic anxiety and accusations of United States meddling, which Washington denies. It was also shaped by Jair Bolsonaro's 2025 conviction for plotting a coup after he lost the 2022 election to Lula. The former president is serving a 27-year sentence, and Flavio Bolsonaro has pledged to free his father if elected.

President Donald Trump called the case a witch hunt and imposed a 50 percent tariff on Brazil in 2025, in a decision explicitly linked to the trial. Many of those tariffs were later watered down, but Trump imposed new levies this year. Lula cast the Trump administration's closeness to the Bolsonaro family as an attempt to sway the election, and labelled the tariffs as bullying.

Reuters reported that inequality and unemployment have fallen under Lula, but he has struggled with voters facing high living costs and heavy household debt. Gang violence also weighs on voters. Bolsonaro promised a heavy-handed approach to crime, including maximum-security jails and chemical castration for serious sexual offences.

Election day, and what happens next

More than 158 million people are eligible to vote, and voting is mandatory. About 33 million eligible voters did not vote in the first round, and both campaigns worked to mobilise them. On Saturday, October 24, Lula held a large rally on Copacabana beach in Rio de Janeiro. Bolsonaro campaigned in Belo Horizonte, capital of Minas Gerais, a state the BBC and The Guardian describe as decisive.

Because Brazil votes electronically, the count should take shape within hours of polls closing, on the TSE results portal and its Resultados app. A first update will not settle a race this close.