BC Conservatives Lead NDP 46 to 43 in Angus Reid Poll

British Columbia Conservatives lead the governing NDP 46 percent to 43 percent among decided and leaning voters in a new Angus Reid Institute poll, a gap the firm calls a statistical tie four days before election day.

The Angus Reid Institute surveyed 793 British Columbia adults online from Oct. 15 to 19, 2026, and released the results on Oct. 19. The BC Greens sit at 8 percent. Angus Reid said a comparable probability sample would carry a margin of error of plus or minus 3 points, which puts the three point gap inside that range.

A race that keeps narrowing

The lead has shrunk through the campaign. The Conservatives led by 5 points on Oct. 5 and by 8 points on Sept. 24, just after Premier David Eby called the snap election on Sept. 22, two years early.

That trend matters more than the headline gap. The NDP started the campaign behind and has closed ground, but it has not taken the lead. With the Greens at 8 percent, the contest is now a clear two party race, and small shifts in close ridings will decide who forms government.

The turnout problem for the NDP

Certainty splits sharply by party. Among Conservative voters, 73 percent say they are very certain of their choice, against 54 percent of NDP voters. Loyalty shows the same pattern. Of people who voted Conservative in 2024, 89 percent say they will vote Conservative again, against 74 percent of 2024 NDP voters who say they will stay with the NDP.

Angus Reid president Shachi Kurl said the NDP faces the tougher task of holding its supporters and getting them out on Oct. 24. That reading fits the numbers. A party can trail by three points and still win if its vote turns out, but the NDP must first firm up supporters who look less settled than their rivals.

The premier question stays close

On best choice for premier, Conservative leader Lorne Doerkson leads Eby 36 percent to 34 percent. Another 30 percent picked neither leader. The near split mirrors the vote numbers and suggests neither leader has broken away as a clear personal choice.

What happens next

Election day is Saturday, Oct. 24, and polls close at 8 p.m. Pacific. The NDP won 47 of 93 seats in 2024, a one seat majority, so even a small swing changes the legislature. The final count, including mail ballots, runs Nov. 6 to 10 and decided the majority in 2024. If the result is as close as this poll suggests, British Columbians may again wait days to learn who governs.

The last days will test ground work more than ads. The Conservatives need to protect a firmer, more loyal base. The NDP needs to hold soft supporters and bring them to the polls. The poll says the ideas race is tied. The turnout race is not.